VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +17.42 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 30.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 19.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 17.1%. Marx fair UP is 30.6%.