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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.57 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.2% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.57 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 77.5%Marx Fair UP 0.6%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 10:00 PMJul 29, 10:02 PMJul 29, 10:04 PMJul 29, 10:06 PMJul 29, 10:08 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T22:00:05.808Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:00:53.227Z60.5%60.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:01:10.639Z60.5%4.2%-56.3 pp
2026-07-29T22:01:21.357Z60.5%4.2%-56.3 pp
2026-07-29T22:01:46.524Z60.5%4.2%-56.3 pp
2026-07-29T22:02:42.321Z60.5%60.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:02:50.063Z60.5%60.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:03:18.878Z60.5%1.9%-58.6 pp
2026-07-29T22:04:05.894Z60.5%1.9%-58.6 pp
2026-07-29T22:04:48.491Z60.5%0.6%-59.9 pp
2026-07-29T22:06:06.125Z60.5%0.6%-59.9 pp
2026-07-29T22:06:40.370Z77.5%0.6%-76.9 pp
2026-07-29T22:08:11.738Z100.0%0.6%-99.4 pp
2026-07-29T22:08:31.671Z100.0%0.6%-99.3 pp
2026-07-29T22:08:49.037Z77.5%0.6%-76.9 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.2%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.57 pp Edge | AntiPredict