VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 53.5%

Jul 29, 08:30 PMJul 29, 08:33 PMJul 29, 08:35 PMJul 29, 08:37 PMJul 29, 08:39 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-29T20:30:59.975Z	51.5%	51.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:31:01.204Z	51.5%	51.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:31:19.423Z	51.5%	0.0%	-51.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:31:45.504Z	51.5%	0.0%	-51.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:32:42.292Z	51.5%	51.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:32:58.969Z	51.5%	51.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:33:17.223Z	51.5%	0.0%	-51.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:33:48.709Z	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:34:42.336Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:34:57.223Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:35:43.296Z	53.5%	0.0%	-53.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:35:43.614Z	99.5%	0.0%	-99.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:39:20.052Z	53.5%	53.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:39:42.335Z	100.0%	53.5%	-46.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.