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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +17.44 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY30.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+17.44 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-8.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 10:51 PMJul 29, 10:53 PMJul 29, 10:55 PMJul 29, 10:57 PMJul 29, 10:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T22:51:04.446Z65.5%93.5%+28.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:51:17.393Z50.5%93.5%+43.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:51:47.842Z65.5%65.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:51:57.308Z65.5%65.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:52:42.247Z65.5%97.5%+32.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:53:18.457Z65.5%97.5%+32.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:53:43.106Z65.5%97.5%+32.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:54:42.647Z65.5%65.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:54:55.596Z65.5%65.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:55:16.187Z65.5%99.9%+34.4 pp
2026-07-29T22:55:42.708Z65.5%99.9%+34.4 pp
2026-07-29T22:56:43.712Z67.5%67.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:57:15.928Z67.5%67.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:58:44.641Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:59:11.176Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 30.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 21.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 19.3%. Marx fair UP is 28.4%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +17.44 pp Edge | AntiPredict