VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +85.93 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 1.6%
Jul 29, 07:45 PMJul 29, 07:47 PMJul 29, 07:49 PMJul 29, 07:51 PMJul 29, 07:53 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T19:45:58.043Z | 39.5% | 39.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:46:02.360Z | 39.5% | 39.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:46:17.428Z | 39.5% | 98.1% | +58.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:46:44.022Z | 39.5% | 98.1% | +58.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:47:41.950Z | 39.5% | 39.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:48:03.607Z | 39.5% | 39.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:48:14.294Z | 39.5% | 3.5% | -36.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:48:47.962Z | 0.5% | 3.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:49:08.796Z | 0.5% | 3.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:49:43.987Z | 0.4% | 3.5% | +3.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:49:52.404Z | 10.5% | 3.5% | -7.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:50:14.327Z | 0.4% | 0.4% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:51:21.386Z | 0.4% | 1.6% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:51:31.354Z | 0.4% | 1.6% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:51:42.145Z | 10.5% | 1.6% | -8.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:53:42.599Z | 0.0% | 1.6% | +1.6 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 98.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 39.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 11.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 85.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 11.0%, gross edge 87.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 85.9%. Marx fair UP is 98.1%.