VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.74 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 29, 07:26 PMJul 29, 07:27 PMJul 29, 07:29 PMJul 29, 07:31 PMJul 29, 07:33 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T19:26:06.665Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:26:44.043Z | 29.5% | 50.5% | +21.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:26:49.381Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:26:58.730Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:27:16.441Z | 29.5% | 99.9% | +70.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:27:45.836Z | 29.5% | 99.9% | +70.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:28:42.117Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:28:52.697Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:29:25.284Z | 29.5% | 100.0% | +70.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:29:45.540Z | 29.5% | 100.0% | +70.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:30:44.991Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:30:58.521Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:31:20.164Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:31:42.592Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:32:46.307Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:33:02.618Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 48.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.