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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 07:21 PMJul 29, 07:23 PMJul 29, 07:24 PMJul 29, 07:26 PMJul 29, 07:27 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T19:21:52.420Z13.5%12.5%-1.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:22:09.193Z12.5%12.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:22:22.655Z13.5%13.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:22:45.591Z2.5%13.5%+11.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:23:21.197Z2.5%2.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:23:42.779Z2.5%2.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:24:28.000Z2.5%100.0%+97.5 pp
2026-07-29T19:24:45.244Z2.5%100.0%+97.5 pp
2026-07-29T19:25:45.615Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:26:06.656Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:26:44.043Z0.1%50.5%+50.5 pp
2026-07-29T19:26:49.377Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:26:57.290Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:27:45.836Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict