VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +67.70 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 29, 07:06 PMJul 29, 07:08 PMJul 29, 07:10 PMJul 29, 07:12 PMJul 29, 07:14 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T19:06:39.049Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:06:56.256Z | 28.5% | 28.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:07:44.447Z | 28.5% | 28.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:08:42.531Z | 28.5% | 100.0% | +71.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:09:21.187Z | 28.5% | 100.0% | +71.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:09:45.684Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:10:45.999Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:10:57.132Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:11:19.560Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:11:42.128Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:12:43.206Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:12:54.035Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:13:42.380Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:14:52.759Z | 0.0% | 0.1% | +0.1 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 30.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 67.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 30.3%, gross edge 70.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 67.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.