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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +29.98 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%68.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+29.98 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 06:15 PMJul 29, 06:17 PMJul 29, 06:19 PMJul 29, 06:22 PMJul 29, 06:24 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T18:15:00.997Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:15:18.531Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:15:44.819Z51.5%100.0%+48.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:16:43.259Z51.5%51.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:16:57.051Z51.5%51.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:17:13.475Z51.5%100.0%+48.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:17:45.120Z51.5%100.0%+48.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:18:49.038Z5.5%49.5%+44.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:18:54.110Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:19:05.092Z5.5%5.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:19:23.039Z5.5%100.0%+94.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:19:45.095Z5.5%100.0%+94.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:21:07.162Z0.1%100.0%+99.9 pp
2026-07-29T18:21:45.029Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:22:44.795Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:23:43.451Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:23:54.222Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:24:44.977Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 68.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 30.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 68.0%, gross edge 32.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 30.0%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +29.98 pp Edge | AntiPredict