VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +42.10 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 29, 05:26 PMJul 29, 05:27 PMJul 29, 05:29 PMJul 29, 05:31 PMJul 29, 05:33 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T17:26:02.064Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:26:17.029Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:26:43.345Z | 34.5% | 50.5% | +16.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:26:47.636Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:26:58.854Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:27:22.590Z | 34.5% | 96.4% | +61.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:27:44.927Z | 31.5% | 96.4% | +64.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:28:43.079Z | 31.5% | 31.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:28:52.908Z | 31.5% | 31.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:29:20.631Z | 31.5% | 99.7% | +68.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:29:42.069Z | 31.5% | 99.7% | +68.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:30:42.092Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:30:56.342Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:31:16.899Z | 0.5% | 99.3% | +98.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:31:42.736Z | 0.5% | 99.3% | +98.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:32:42.735Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:32:56.571Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:33:48.979Z | 0.0% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 95.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 42.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 44.3%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 42.1%. Marx fair UP is 95.3%.