VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +23.09 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 29, 05:10 PMJul 29, 05:12 PMJul 29, 05:15 PMJul 29, 05:17 PMJul 29, 05:19 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T17:10:39.681Z | 50.5% | 44.8% | -5.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:10:40.899Z | 50.5% | 44.8% | -5.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:10:53.075Z | 84.5% | 44.8% | -39.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:11:37.040Z | 84.5% | 84.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:11:42.061Z | 84.5% | 84.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:12:10.300Z | 84.5% | 84.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:12:42.019Z | 89.5% | 89.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:13:02.343Z | 89.5% | 89.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:13:24.053Z | 89.5% | 70.1% | -19.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:13:44.068Z | 89.5% | 70.1% | -19.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:14:42.423Z | 89.5% | 70.1% | -19.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:14:46.273Z | 83.5% | 70.1% | -13.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:14:54.002Z | 89.5% | 89.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:15:22.601Z | 89.5% | 84.7% | -4.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:15:42.417Z | 100.0% | 84.7% | -15.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:15:51.678Z | 100.0% | 84.7% | -15.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:16:41.860Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:16:50.049Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:17:44.012Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:18:48.963Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T17:19:42.382Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 70.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 89.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 5.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 23.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 5.9%, gross edge 24.9%, slippage 0.9%, fee 0.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 23.1%. Marx fair UP is 70.1%.