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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +40.24 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY93.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+40.24 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 7.5%Marx Fair UP 7.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 05:36 PMJul 29, 05:38 PMJul 29, 05:39 PMJul 29, 05:41 PMJul 29, 05:43 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T17:36:22.824Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:36:40.752Z16.5%100.0%+83.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:36:57.467Z16.5%16.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:37:10.865Z16.5%16.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:37:44.732Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:37:58.304Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:38:43.465Z26.5%50.5%+24.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:38:50.741Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:39:02.992Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:39:16.794Z26.5%100.0%+73.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:39:44.304Z26.5%100.0%+73.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:40:43.199Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:40:56.458Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:41:21.760Z26.5%100.0%+73.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:41:43.954Z26.5%100.0%+73.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:42:44.399Z7.5%7.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:43:14.070Z7.5%7.5%-0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 93.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 40.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 41.7%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 39.4%. Marx fair UP is 92.7%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +40.24 pp Edge | AntiPredict