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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +67.00 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY43.5%31.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+67.00 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 04:25 PMJul 29, 04:28 PMJul 29, 04:30 PMJul 29, 04:32 PMJul 29, 04:34 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T16:25:58.768Z43.5%43.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:26:41.949Z43.5%100.0%+56.5 pp
2026-07-29T16:27:21.476Z43.5%100.0%+56.5 pp
2026-07-29T16:27:43.258Z43.5%100.0%+56.5 pp
2026-07-29T16:28:45.393Z43.5%50.5%+7.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:28:51.111Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:29:01.988Z43.5%43.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:29:18.766Z43.5%100.0%+56.5 pp
2026-07-29T16:29:43.212Z43.5%100.0%+56.5 pp
2026-07-29T16:30:43.281Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:30:58.494Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:31:20.710Z0.1%100.0%+99.9 pp
2026-07-29T16:31:42.117Z0.1%100.0%+99.9 pp
2026-07-29T16:32:41.921Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:32:51.050Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:33:54.264Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:34:42.665Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 43.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 31.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 67.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 31.0%, gross edge 69.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 67.0%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +67.00 pp Edge | AntiPredict