VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +11.99 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 33.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 12.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.1%, gross edge 14.2%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 10.9%. Marx fair UP is 34.8%.