VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +43.76 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 4.0%
Jul 29, 02:25 PMJul 29, 02:28 PMJul 29, 02:30 PMJul 29, 02:32 PMJul 29, 02:34 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T14:25:55.100Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:27:22.397Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:27:30.893Z | 4.0% | 100.0% | +96.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:28:50.965Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:29:02.624Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:29:09.962Z | 4.0% | 4.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:29:16.251Z | 4.0% | 100.0% | +96.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:29:42.923Z | 0.4% | 100.0% | +99.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:30:41.758Z | 4.0% | 4.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:30:51.091Z | 4.0% | 4.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:31:14.245Z | 4.0% | 100.0% | +96.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:31:41.942Z | 4.0% | 100.0% | +96.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:32:42.006Z | 4.0% | 4.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:32:49.517Z | 4.0% | 4.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:33:48.118Z | 4.0% | 4.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:34:41.823Z | 0.0% | 4.0% | +4.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 54.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 43.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 54.0%, gross edge 46.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 43.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.