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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.97 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY59.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.97 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 30, 04:40 AMJul 30, 04:42 AMJul 30, 04:44 AMJul 30, 04:47 AMJul 30, 04:49 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T04:40:01.826Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T04:40:45.934Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T04:41:25.009Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T04:41:47.659Z49.5%50.5%+1.0 pp
2026-07-30T04:41:54.547Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T04:42:06.628Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T04:42:20.402Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-30T04:42:42.723Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-30T04:43:44.016Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T04:43:59.711Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T04:44:26.292Z34.5%100.0%+65.5 pp
2026-07-30T04:44:27.865Z34.5%100.0%+65.5 pp
2026-07-30T04:44:44.863Z70.5%100.0%+29.5 pp
2026-07-30T04:45:44.448Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T04:46:01.162Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T04:46:14.445Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-07-30T04:46:44.387Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-07-30T04:47:43.856Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T04:47:59.448Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T04:48:50.627Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T04:49:53.864Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 59.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 7.7%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.4%. Marx fair UP is 58.7%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.97 pp Edge | AntiPredict