VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +50.60 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 29, 05:55 AMJul 29, 05:58 AMJul 29, 06:00 AMJul 29, 06:02 AMJul 29, 06:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T05:55:51.036Z | 41.5% | 41.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:56:07.362Z | 41.5% | 100.0% | +58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:56:40.684Z | 41.5% | 100.0% | +58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:57:46.000Z | 41.5% | 41.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:57:57.704Z | 41.5% | 41.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:58:10.105Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:58:56.088Z | 14.5% | 100.0% | +85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:59:39.270Z | 12.0% | 12.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:59:54.461Z | 12.0% | 12.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:00:24.846Z | 12.0% | 100.0% | +88.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:00:42.063Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:01:39.107Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:02:06.511Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:02:44.077Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:03:38.947Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:04:41.421Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 47.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 50.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 47.2%, gross edge 53.0%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 50.6%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.