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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +6.04 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY16.5%93.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+6.04 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN4.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 3.5%Marx Fair UP 3.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 10:50 PMJul 28, 10:53 PMJul 28, 10:55 PMJul 28, 10:57 PMJul 28, 10:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T22:50:56.270Z14.5%0.0%-14.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:51:36.824Z14.5%0.0%-14.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:51:40.227Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:51:44.237Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:52:41.364Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:53:41.684Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:54:41.626Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:55:41.763Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:55:53.346Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:56:38.766Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:57:58.628Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:58:03.356Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:58:47.354Z3.5%0.5%-3.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:59:35.809Z0.0%3.5%+3.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:59:46.086Z3.5%3.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:59:55.122Z3.5%3.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 16.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 93.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 93.0%, gross edge 7.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +6.04 pp Edge | AntiPredict