VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.79 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 41.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.1%, gross edge 7.8%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.4%. Marx fair UP is 42.2%.