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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 10:01 PMJul 28, 10:03 PMJul 28, 10:05 PMJul 28, 10:07 PMJul 28, 10:09 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T22:01:00.024Z15.5%50.5%+35.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:01:03.940Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:01:15.143Z15.5%15.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:02:01.610Z15.5%0.0%-15.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:02:01.988Z15.5%0.0%-15.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:02:46.034Z30.5%0.0%-30.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:03:40.097Z30.5%0.0%-30.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:04:41.603Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:05:40.507Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:06:41.683Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:07:42.276Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:07:46.544Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:08:44.477Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:09:41.684Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict