VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +58.83 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 28, 09:31 PMJul 28, 09:33 PMJul 28, 09:35 PMJul 28, 09:37 PMJul 28, 09:39 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T21:31:01.334Z | 46.5% | 99.5% | +53.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:31:38.836Z | 46.5% | 99.5% | +53.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:32:41.986Z | 45.5% | 99.5% | +54.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:33:41.707Z | 45.5% | 99.5% | +54.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:34:41.780Z | 77.0% | 99.5% | +22.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:35:41.311Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:36:40.841Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:37:44.707Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:37:52.070Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:38:42.131Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:39:42.778Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 39.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 58.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 56.3%, gross edge 45.0%, slippage 1.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 41.5%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.