VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 28, 09:06 PMJul 28, 09:08 PMJul 28, 09:10 PMJul 28, 09:12 PMJul 28, 09:14 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T21:06:42.348Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:07:41.334Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:08:41.782Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:08:53.647Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:09:40.645Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:10:39.713Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:10:53.548Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:11:02.974Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:11:38.712Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:13:21.782Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:14:41.700Z | 0.0% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:14:48.748Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.