VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.15 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.6% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+47.15 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN86.9%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 28, 08:56 PMJul 28, 08:58 PMJul 28, 08:59 PMJul 28, 09:00 PMJul 28, 09:02 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T20:56:40.943Z	57.5%	0.0%	-57.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:58:01.786Z	57.5%	0.0%	-57.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:59:08.901Z	24.5%	0.0%	-24.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:59:41.701Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:59:58.863Z	5.5%	0.0%	-5.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:00:17.897Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:00:42.053Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:01:40.820Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T21:02:17.351Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.1 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.3%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.5%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.