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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 08:30 PMJul 28, 08:33 PMJul 28, 08:35 PMJul 28, 08:37 PMJul 28, 08:39 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T20:30:46.627Z48.5%99.5%+51.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:31:40.724Z48.5%99.5%+51.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:32:47.360Z77.5%99.5%+22.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:34:41.708Z84.5%99.5%+15.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:35:40.142Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:36:43.436Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:37:41.960Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:37:46.474Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:38:43.281Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:39:41.606Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict