VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN89.1%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 42.5%Marx Fair UP 24.5%

Jul 28, 08:26 PMJul 28, 08:28 PMJul 28, 08:30 PMJul 28, 08:32 PMJul 28, 08:34 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T20:26:42.860Z	63.5%	0.0%	-63.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:27:47.118Z	63.5%	0.0%	-63.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:29:00.526Z	24.5%	0.0%	-24.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:29:40.703Z	24.5%	0.0%	-24.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:30:40.668Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:30:48.690Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:31:40.724Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:32:16.006Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:32:47.359Z	24.5%	0.5%	-24.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:33:31.086Z	24.5%	24.5%	-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:33:38.873Z	24.5%	24.5%	-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:34:41.708Z	42.5%	24.5%	-18.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.4%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.