VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +73.19 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%25.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+73.19 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Jul 28, 08:00 PMJul 28, 08:03 PMJul 28, 08:05 PMJul 28, 08:07 PMJul 28, 08:09 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T20:00:50.082Z	83.5%	50.5%	-33.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:01:01.247Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:01:43.881Z	83.5%	0.0%	-83.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:01:46.445Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:02:48.583Z	99.5%	0.0%	-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:06:41.509Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:07:45.343Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:07:49.560Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:08:42.363Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:09:42.173Z	100.0%	99.5%	-0.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 25.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 73.2 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 5.7%, gross edge 96.0%, slippage 1.7%, fee 0.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 93.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.