VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +43.76 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%54.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+43.76 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Jul 28, 07:45 PMJul 28, 07:47 PMJul 28, 07:49 PMJul 28, 07:50 PMJul 28, 07:52 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T19:45:40.445Z	43.5%	99.5%	+56.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:46:40.076Z	43.5%	99.5%	+56.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:47:45.184Z	43.5%	99.5%	+56.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:48:40.364Z	43.5%	99.5%	+56.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:49:41.096Z	43.5%	99.5%	+56.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:50:39.661Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:51:39.734Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:52:42.205Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:52:45.727Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 54.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 43.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 12.6%, gross edge 88.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 0.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 86.1%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.