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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN89.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 05:51 PMJul 28, 05:53 PMJul 28, 05:55 PMJul 28, 05:57 PMJul 28, 05:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T17:51:19.682Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:52:16.669Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:53:32.596Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:54:34.516Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:55:15.844Z0.5%44.5%+44.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:55:43.043Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:56:10.177Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:56:25.385Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:57:15.780Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:58:19.950Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:59:08.754Z0.0%0.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:59:30.343Z0.0%0.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict