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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 96.0%Marx Fair UP 96.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 05:20 PMJul 28, 05:22 PMJul 28, 05:24 PMJul 28, 05:27 PMJul 28, 05:29 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T17:20:15.986Z51.5%96.0%+44.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:21:15.801Z89.5%96.0%+6.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:22:15.806Z89.5%96.0%+6.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:23:15.845Z89.5%96.0%+6.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:24:16.125Z89.5%96.0%+6.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:25:15.989Z89.5%96.0%+6.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:26:15.794Z89.5%96.0%+6.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:27:16.142Z96.0%96.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:28:04.953Z96.0%96.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:29:27.645Z100.0%96.0%-4.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:29:43.605Z96.0%96.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 49.0%, gross edge 51.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 48.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict