VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +42.77 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%55.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+42.77 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 52.5%Marx Fair UP 45.5%

Jul 28, 04:45 PMJul 28, 04:47 PMJul 28, 04:50 PMJul 28, 04:52 PMJul 28, 04:54 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T16:45:42.026Z	45.5%	66.5%	+21.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:49:25.690Z	45.5%	66.5%	+21.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:50:25.730Z	99.5%	66.5%	-33.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:51:25.805Z	99.5%	66.5%	-33.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:51:35.017Z	66.5%	66.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:51:43.210Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:52:28.428Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:53:25.545Z	45.5%	45.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:53:33.022Z	45.5%	45.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:54:26.092Z	52.5%	45.5%	-7.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 55.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 42.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 48.6%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.1%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.