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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +29.00 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%69.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+29.00 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN41.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 02:50 PMJul 28, 02:52 PMJul 28, 02:55 PMJul 28, 02:57 PMJul 28, 02:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T14:50:35.320Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:51:03.834Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:51:04.664Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:52:35.247Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:53:05.712Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:53:15.396Z58.5%0.0%-58.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:54:41.063Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:55:02.680Z58.5%0.0%-58.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:55:31.219Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:55:35.541Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:56:30.885Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:56:35.528Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:57:32.418Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:58:30.827Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:59:30.888Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 69.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 29.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 69.0%, gross edge 31.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 29.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +29.00 pp Edge | AntiPredict