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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 02:00 PMJul 28, 02:02 PMJul 28, 02:04 PMJul 28, 02:06 PMJul 28, 02:09 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T14:00:14.695Z75.5%75.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:01:30.828Z75.5%75.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:01:37.803Z75.5%75.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:01:57.522Z75.5%0.0%-75.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:02:30.926Z75.5%0.0%-75.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:03:30.880Z75.5%75.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:03:39.613Z75.5%75.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:03:55.269Z75.5%0.0%-75.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:04:30.891Z75.5%0.0%-75.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:05:31.102Z99.5%75.5%-24.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:05:35.389Z75.5%75.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:05:39.473Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:05:56.047Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:06:30.936Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:08:01.318Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:08:59.763Z100.0%99.5%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:09:11.299Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict