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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 47.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 01:40 PMJul 28, 01:42 PMJul 28, 01:44 PMJul 28, 01:47 PMJul 28, 01:49 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T13:40:19.211Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:41:20.871Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:42:29.040Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:44:31.646Z98.5%50.5%-48.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:44:36.789Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:45:05.477Z98.5%0.0%-98.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:45:32.973Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:46:30.961Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:46:57.318Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:47:34.807Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:48:30.880Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:48:59.608Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:49:30.955Z100.0%47.5%-52.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict