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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-8.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 1.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 01:25 PMJul 28, 01:27 PMJul 28, 01:30 PMJul 28, 01:32 PMJul 28, 01:34 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T13:25:37.473Z1.5%50.5%+49.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:25:42.444Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:26:05.359Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:26:05.902Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:27:45.741Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:28:00.029Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:29:19.995Z1.5%0.0%-1.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:29:35.180Z1.5%1.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:29:54.811Z1.5%0.0%-1.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:30:42.498Z1.5%0.0%-1.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:31:34.903Z1.5%1.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:34:30.852Z0.0%1.5%+1.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict