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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +51.76 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%46.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+51.76 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 12:20 PMJul 28, 12:22 PMJul 28, 12:24 PMJul 28, 12:27 PMJul 28, 12:29 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T12:20:05.411Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:20:32.794Z54.5%0.0%-54.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:21:31.027Z54.5%54.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:21:39.763Z54.5%54.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:22:00.944Z54.5%0.0%-54.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:22:35.448Z54.5%0.0%-54.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:24:07.255Z54.5%22.5%-32.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:24:36.053Z22.5%22.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:25:33.107Z99.5%22.5%-77.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:25:36.285Z22.5%22.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:25:45.830Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:26:31.056Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:27:32.730Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:28:31.352Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:29:30.946Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 46.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 51.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 46.0%, gross edge 54.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 51.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +51.76 pp Edge | AntiPredict