VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.25 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 42.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 7.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.3%. Marx fair UP is 42.5%.