VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +41.78 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%56.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+41.78 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN73.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 28, 11:25 AMJul 28, 11:26 AMJul 28, 11:28 AMJul 28, 11:29 AMJul 28, 11:31 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T11:25:13.537Z	45.5%	0.0%	-45.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:25:31.059Z	45.5%	0.0%	-45.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:25:48.881Z	45.5%	0.0%	-45.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:26:32.096Z	68.5%	45.5%	-23.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:27:14.501Z	45.5%	45.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:28:00.990Z	45.5%	0.0%	-45.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:29:39.255Z	45.5%	45.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:29:51.116Z	68.5%	68.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:30:08.917Z	68.5%	0.0%	-68.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:30:30.953Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:30:40.204Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:31:30.960Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:31:35.120Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 56.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 41.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 56.0%, gross edge 44.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 41.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.