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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +44.76 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%53.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+44.76 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 11:15 AMJul 28, 11:17 AMJul 28, 11:20 AMJul 28, 11:22 AMJul 28, 11:24 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T11:15:32.581Z67.5%49.5%-18.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:16:30.874Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:16:35.454Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:16:47.141Z67.5%67.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:16:58.186Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:17:30.967Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:18:31.051Z99.5%49.5%-50.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:18:34.729Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:18:58.220Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:19:30.894Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:20:31.129Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:20:35.134Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:21:05.500Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:21:32.220Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:22:34.544Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:22:40.055Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:23:55.582Z100.0%99.5%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:24:07.691Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T11:24:31.002Z100.0%99.5%-0.4 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 53.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.0%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +44.76 pp Edge | AntiPredict