VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Jul 28, 10:16 AMJul 28, 10:18 AMJul 28, 10:20 AMJul 28, 10:22 AMJul 28, 10:24 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T10:16:30.845Z	51.5%	51.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:16:34.578Z	51.5%	51.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:16:57.474Z	51.5%	0.0%	-51.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:17:32.103Z	51.5%	0.0%	-51.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:18:30.804Z	51.5%	51.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:18:39.408Z	51.5%	51.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:18:59.663Z	51.5%	0.0%	-51.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:19:32.342Z	51.5%	0.0%	-51.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:20:30.863Z	100.0%	51.5%	-48.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:20:35.198Z	51.5%	51.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:20:54.671Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:21:02.389Z	100.0%	0.0%	-99.9 pp
2026-07-28T10:21:32.292Z	100.0%	0.0%	-99.9 pp
2026-07-28T10:22:56.972Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:23:54.474Z	100.0%	100.0%	-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:24:04.495Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.