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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +44.76 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%53.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+44.76 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN82.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 3.5%Marx Fair UP 3.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 09:55 AMJul 28, 09:57 AMJul 28, 09:58 AMJul 28, 10:00 AMJul 28, 10:02 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T09:55:02.976Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T09:55:07.353Z3.5%0.0%-3.5 pp
2026-07-28T09:56:39.268Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T09:56:54.781Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T09:58:38.491Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T09:58:56.911Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T09:59:44.909Z3.5%0.0%-3.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:00:12.381Z3.5%3.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:00:30.941Z3.5%3.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:00:36.164Z3.5%3.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:01:07.085Z3.5%0.0%-3.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:01:07.300Z3.5%0.0%-3.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:02:54.796Z3.5%3.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 53.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.0%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +44.76 pp Edge | AntiPredict