VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 96.5%Marx Fair UP 96.5%
Jul 28, 09:30 AMJul 28, 09:32 AMJul 28, 09:34 AMJul 28, 09:37 AMJul 28, 09:39 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T09:30:13.436Z | 96.5% | 50.5% | -46.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:30:48.830Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:31:01.562Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:32:35.152Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:33:01.561Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:34:31.025Z | 99.5% | 98.5% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:34:39.204Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:34:57.727Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:35:30.853Z | 100.0% | 0.0% | -99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:36:30.821Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:36:34.230Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:37:39.109Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:39:06.204Z | 100.0% | 96.5% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:39:21.083Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:39:38.923Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.