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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +23.19 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%75.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+23.19 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN31.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 08:25 AMJul 28, 08:27 AMJul 28, 08:29 AMJul 28, 08:30 AMJul 28, 08:32 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T08:25:37.258Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:25:39.334Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:25:56.444Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:27:38.568Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:27:54.153Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:28:31.907Z25.5%0.0%-25.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:29:30.923Z25.5%25.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:29:33.831Z25.5%25.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:29:53.443Z25.5%0.0%-25.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:30:30.802Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:30:34.562Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:31:30.831Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:31:36.319Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:32:31.934Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 75.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 23.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 3.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 75.0%, gross edge 25.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.3%, safety 0.5%, net edge 23.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +23.19 pp Edge | AntiPredict