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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +73.04 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY46.5%25.1% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+73.04 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 08:15 AMJul 28, 08:17 AMJul 28, 08:20 AMJul 28, 08:22 AMJul 28, 08:24 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T08:15:37.116Z46.5%46.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:15:39.158Z46.5%46.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:15:56.845Z46.5%0.0%-46.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:16:30.816Z46.5%0.0%-46.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:17:31.033Z46.5%46.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:17:33.724Z46.5%46.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:17:54.030Z46.5%0.0%-46.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:18:30.837Z46.5%0.0%-46.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:19:30.803Z99.5%46.5%-53.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:19:38.798Z46.5%46.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:19:49.404Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:19:54.730Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:19:54.806Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:20:32.126Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:21:30.974Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:21:33.527Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:22:33.900Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:23:34.547Z100.0%99.5%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:23:40.441Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:24:30.905Z100.0%99.5%-0.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 46.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 25.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 73.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 25.1%, gross edge 76.0%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.3%, safety 0.5%, net edge 73.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +73.04 pp Edge | AntiPredict