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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +48.27 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%49.5% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+48.27 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 90.5%Marx Fair UP 90.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 05:40 AMJul 28, 05:42 AMJul 28, 05:45 AMJul 28, 05:47 AMJul 28, 05:49 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T05:40:34.965Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:41:42.687Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:43:34.106Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:43:41.725Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:44:02.218Z96.5%0.0%-96.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:44:30.907Z96.5%0.0%-96.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:45:30.905Z96.5%96.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:45:39.772Z96.5%96.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:45:44.811Z96.5%0.0%-96.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:46:30.977Z96.5%0.0%-96.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:47:30.932Z96.5%96.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:47:34.796Z96.5%96.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:48:30.792Z96.5%96.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:49:30.816Z90.5%90.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:49:39.675Z90.5%90.5%-0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 49.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 48.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 49.5%, gross edge 51.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 48.3%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +48.27 pp Edge | AntiPredict