VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +7.68 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 63.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 54.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 54.0%, gross edge 12.8%, slippage 3.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.6%. Marx fair UP is 63.8%.