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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN93.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 02:45 AMJul 28, 02:47 AMJul 28, 02:49 AMJul 28, 02:50 AMJul 28, 02:52 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T02:45:37.271Z62.5%62.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:45:40.389Z62.5%62.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:45:42.141Z62.5%0.0%-62.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:46:32.241Z62.5%0.0%-62.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:47:31.213Z62.5%62.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:47:35.455Z62.5%62.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:47:47.513Z62.5%0.0%-62.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:47:47.769Z62.5%0.0%-62.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:48:32.204Z62.5%0.0%-62.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:49:31.141Z62.5%62.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:49:39.528Z62.5%62.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:49:41.904Z62.5%0.0%-62.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:50:32.147Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:50:39.962Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:51:31.095Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:51:34.480Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:52:33.658Z0.0%0.5%+0.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict