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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN93.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 2.5%Marx Fair UP 36.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 02:35 AMJul 28, 02:37 AMJul 28, 02:40 AMJul 28, 02:42 AMJul 28, 02:44 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T02:35:39.515Z45.5%45.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:35:55.665Z45.5%0.0%-45.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:36:32.149Z45.5%0.0%-45.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:37:34.981Z45.5%45.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:37:52.018Z45.5%45.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:38:10.468Z45.5%0.0%-45.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:38:49.695Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:39:31.130Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:39:34.555Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:40:06.651Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:40:31.099Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:41:31.082Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:42:32.266Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:42:34.642Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:43:31.036Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:44:32.151Z2.5%36.5%+34.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict