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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +25.12 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%73.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+25.12 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN34.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 17.5%Marx Fair UP 27.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 01:40 AMJul 28, 01:42 AMJul 28, 01:45 AMJul 28, 01:47 AMJul 28, 01:49 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T01:40:17.840Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:40:42.360Z23.5%0.0%-23.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:41:30.757Z23.5%0.0%-23.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:42:30.886Z23.5%23.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:43:30.920Z23.5%23.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:43:39.295Z23.5%23.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:43:51.135Z23.5%0.0%-23.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:44:30.794Z23.5%0.0%-23.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:45:30.862Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:45:39.937Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:45:54.564Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:46:30.791Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:47:30.852Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:47:34.672Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:47:51.695Z0.5%10.5%+10.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:48:32.062Z0.5%10.5%+10.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:49:30.784Z17.5%27.5%+10.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:49:54.968Z17.5%27.5%+10.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 73.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 25.1 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 81.4%, gross edge 19.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.1%, safety 0.5%, net edge 17.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +25.12 pp Edge | AntiPredict