VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +5.43 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 59.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 8.7%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.4%. Marx fair UP is 59.7%.