VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 4 HOURS
BTC 4-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +47.49 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 33.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Jul 28, 12:00 PMJul 28, 12:46 PMJul 28, 01:33 PMJul 28, 02:20 PMJul 28, 03:07 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T14:41:36.050Z | 31.5% | 31.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:42:30.988Z | 41.5% | 31.5% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:43:49.578Z | 31.5% | 31.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:45:32.863Z | 41.5% | 41.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:46:34.753Z | 41.5% | 41.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:47:02.999Z | 41.5% | 0.0% | -41.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:47:33.744Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:49:03.031Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:49:30.916Z | 49.5% | 0.0% | -49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:50:39.532Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:51:03.457Z | 49.5% | 0.0% | -49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:51:31.078Z | 56.0% | 0.0% | -56.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:52:35.189Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:54:41.049Z | 56.0% | 56.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:55:31.219Z | 56.0% | 56.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:56:30.885Z | 56.0% | 56.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:56:35.497Z | 56.0% | 56.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:57:05.437Z | 56.0% | 0.0% | -56.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:58:30.827Z | 56.0% | 0.0% | -56.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:59:01.308Z | 56.0% | 0.0% | -56.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:59:30.888Z | 56.0% | 0.0% | -56.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:00:31.040Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:01:02.136Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:02:31.197Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:03:03.214Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:03:32.154Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:05:00.425Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:05:30.898Z | 33.5% | 0.0% | -33.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:06:30.892Z | 33.5% | 0.0% | -33.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:07:00.951Z | 33.5% | 0.0% | -33.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 49.7%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.3%.